Peak flows actually increase at many sites in Canada because of increasing fall, winter, and spring precipitation in this part of the domain, although the peak flow also occurs about a month earlier. For information on past projects, see our Projects Archive. About 15 sites in western Washington, outside the CRB, were also included in support of the 2009 WACCIA. The CBCCSP had a budget of about US$500 thousand (in 2010 dollars) over two years. The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose current mid-winter temperatures are within a few degrees of freezing. Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates. The PET is shown to increase dramatically over most of the domain (primarily because of warming in the scenarios), whereas AET shows widespread declines east of the Cascade Range. The state of Oregon, for example, is classified as about 75% mixed-rain-and-snow for the twentieth century climate. By closing this message, you are consenting to our use of cookies. A low pressure system slowly moving offshore is forecast to spin moisture into the Columbia Basin Sunday as it meanders closer to the Southern Oregon Coast. As a result the largest changes in snowpack are apparent in the simulations for relatively warm coastal mountain ranges, such as the Cascade Range, and at moderate elevation in the Rockies, where snowpack is most sensitive to changes in temperature of a few degrees Celsius. Naturalized flow products from specific sites were also used to provide naturalized inflows at model nodes needed to run the USBR MODSIM (Labadie, Citation2007) reservoir model for the Snake River basin. (Citation2010) interpolated existing 1/8 degree model parameters to 1/16 degree and also included previously calibrated soil parameters for the Yakima sub-basin (please see acknowledgements). Snow water equivalent, the water content of the snowpack expressed as a depth, Peak snow water equivalent to cool-season precipitation ratio, Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Confirming the sensitivity to warming demonstrated in earlier studies, the CBCCSP results show widespread reductions in the 1 April snowpack, and systematic reductions in the long-term average SWE2PR, a measure of the importance of snow in the hydrologic cycle (Fig. 5; Yakima River at Parker in Fig. Size, however, is only one aspect of what makes the river particularly unique. Corresponding shifts in the seasonal timing of streamflow are also relatively small in the Canadian CRB until late in the twenty-first century. Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). Hydrology and water resources research at CIG was particularly focused on the use of experimental climate and hydrologic forecasts for the CRB (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999a, Citation2000; Lettenmaier & Hamlet, Citation2003; Leung, Hamlet, Lettenmaier, & Kumar, Citation1999) in the context of decision support for various water management applications (Hamlet, Huppert, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2011; Voisin et al., Citation2006). Yakima River Basin Study YAKIMA Lower Columbia returned to the diamond on Friday with a double-header split against Yakima Valley. Retrieved from, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). This study represents one of the first attempts to dynamically couple a sophisticated, physically based hydrologic model with a detailed crop model to estimate the integrated impacts on water supply and crop viability at a range of spatial scales. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. An understanding of the basin's transboundary nature has also informed CIG's hydrologic modelling studies, which have consistently provided complete coverage of the Canadian and US portions of the basin. Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Potential evapotranspiration increases over most of the PNW in summer because of rising temperatures; however, actual evapotranspiration is reduced in all but a few areas of the domain because evapotranspiration is mostly water limited in summer, and summer precipitation decreases in the simulations. A flight of geese circle over Moses Lake Saturday morning. The CBCCSP also provided a complete and well-tested data processing sequence for post-processing and summarizing the hydrologic data to provide figures and analysis efficiently. In relatively small basins (approximately 5001500km2), of which there are a substantial number included in the study, errors in meteorological driving data are often a strong determinant of simulation errors. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. About 10 locations show negative NSE scores, which usually occurs when the simulations are strongly biased in comparison with observations. Special thanks to Kurt Unger and Ken Slattery, who were the primary architects of the CBCCSP at WDOE. Fig. Bias-corrected streamflow values are useful in water planning studies, especially for providing inputs to reservoir operations models that are calibrated on a particular naturalized or modified flow dataset (e.g., Hamlet, Lee, et al., Citation2010b; NWPCC, Citation2005; Vano et al., Citation2010). Many locations could see increases of 100% or more in the 50-year and 100-year flood magnitude, with some smaller tributaries potentially seeing increases of as much as 175%. Determining surface water availability in Oregon. The data is accessible for decision makers, researchers, students, professionals and the public. Incidence of Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae) under different pesticide regimes in the lower Columbia basin. In other words, dry areas east of the Cascade Range have less base-flow potential to lose with increasing evapotranspiration and loss of summer precipitation because the soil moisture is already at very low levels in late summer. Future work on the project will likely focus on expanding the number of streamflow sites for which products are available (e.g., inclusion of additional sites in coastal Oregon in the site-specific products) and providing a comprehensive suite of products associated with CMIP5 results (Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, Citation2012) associated with IPCC AR5. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Broad changes in shallow groundwater (e.g., localized contributions to streamflow from smaller unconfined aquifers), however, are likely well captured by the VIC model based on a strong correlation between VIC-simulated base flows and observations in many basins examined by Wenger et al. Impacts assessments from the WACCIA played a central role in these planning activities, but updated and extended data from the CBCCSP also materially supported these efforts. Previso do tempo local de hora em hora, condies climticas, precipitao, ponto de condensao, umidade, vento no Weather.com e The Weather Channel We should note that glaciers and deep groundwater (e.g., contributions to streamflow from large confined aquifers) are not simulated by the VIC model, and impacts in areas profoundly influenced by these hydrologic features may not be well characterized in the simulations (Wenger et al., Citation2010). For the BCSD runs (for which the ability to capture key elements of the region's climate variability is arguably even more important to the outcomes) the projections based on the seven highest ranked GCMs (Table 1) were selected for each emissions scenario. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Hydrologic climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin and coastal drainages. During the study (and afterwards), some stakeholders expressed interest in including less optimistic emissions scenarios (such as SRES A1FI), in order to better understand the implications of a potential worst case scenario. The Climate Resilience Program helps communities in the Basin become more climate resilient by supporting large-scale, multi-year, shovel-ready climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience projects that address sources of climate change or manage the risks of climate change impacts. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. Detailed water balance summaries and streamflow data for up to 300 river locations to be specified by WDOE and other stakeholders in the region. Treaty Relating to Cooperative Development of the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, United States of AmericaCanada, January 17, 1961September 16, 1964, 15 U.S.T. Detailed information about the study can be found under Documentation, while model results can be found under Data. A comprehensive assessment of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10. The Water Hub contains numerical and spatial data, reports, photos and other types of information about streams, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, snow, glaciers and climate in the Columbia Basin both historical and current. 2), for which overall errors in meteorological driving data were assumed to be relatively small; then, using these model parameters, to check the results in smaller sub-catchments. (Citation2010) over the entire PNW (Tohver et al. The same basic effects are seen in the SWE2PR maps, where snowmelt remains dominant in the northern tip of the CRB even at the end of the twenty-first century, whereas in the US portions of the domain there are widespread transformations of mixed-rain-and-snow river basins to rain-dominant basins and snowmelt-dominant basins to mixed-rain-and-snow basins. In addition to the time series gridded data, the long-term monthly mean data for each hydrologic variable, for each scenario, is provided in GridASCII format, compatible with ArcGIS. .. slide 2 of 5. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Retrieved from, Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin. Full knowledge of the preceding steps is not required to use the products obtained at any level of the study, which increases the utility of the products. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Procedure, developed at the University of Arizona (Yapo et al., A water resources simulation model developed by Labadie (, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria. 8 Monthly mean hydrographs not adjusted for bias (water year: OctoberSeptember) for four representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (upper left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (upper right), Yakima River at Parker (lower left), and the Chehalis River at Grand Mound (lower right). Les principaux produits de ltude comprennent des donnes sommaires pour environ 300 sites fluviaux dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et des produits mensuels de Systme d'information gographique pour 21 variables hydrologiques couvrant tout le domaine ltude. Hamlet, and S.-Y. Elsner et al. Other climate change studies on the Columbia River and its sub-basins followed (Cohen, Miller, Hamlet, & Avis, Citation2000; Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet, Citation2003, Citation2011; Hamlet, Lee, Mickelson, & Elsner, Citation2010b; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, Citation2011; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2009; NWPCC, Citation2005; Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Snover, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). This advance through the native forest has been driven, primarily, by cattle ranching. These techniques remove systematic biases in the simulations of routed streamflow to produce products that closely match the long-term statistics of a natural or modified flow dataset for a particular site. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Instead our primary goal was to encompass the approximate range of all available scenarios while reducing costs by downscaling projections from a subset of the larger group of 20 GCMs (Hamlet et al., 2010a). The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. For example, to support academic or agency researchers with their own hydrologic modelling capability, the study provides projections of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and humidity and a calibrated VIC hydrologic model implementation. Rain-dominant basins in the United States (e.g., Chehalis River at Grand Mound in Fig. These include the full meteorological forcings for the model (variables 18), a suite of water balance variables simulated by the model (variables 916), and five different PET metrics (variables 1721) (Elsner et al., Citation2010). Climate change scenarios for water planning studies, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Hamlet, and S.-Y. Post-processing of the primary VIC model output (see Table 2) was carried out to produce a number of specific products discussed in the following sections. Also, at about this time, successful lawsuits challenging NEPA studies because they had not addressed climate change effects began to appear (Hamlet, Citation2011). Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Simulations of floods and extreme low flows increase in intensity for most of the river sites included in the study. One of the major climate change impacts already being seen in the Columbia Basin has been the decreases in winter snowpack, the increase in winter precipitation events, and the resulting shifts in flow regime in the Columbia River and its tributaries. These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. All of the meteorological forcing data, except wind speed, are reproduced in the output files produced by the hydrologic model. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. Prior climate change datasets for the CRB produced by CIG (using CMIP2/TAR projections) only included about 20 river sites (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005; Snover et al., Citation2003) and provided very limited support for planning efforts at smaller spatial scales. In this section we provide an overview of the methods associated with the primary elements of the CBCCSP. For climate change studies in the western United States where snow is an important element of the hydrologic cycle, the model's use of a sophisticated energy-balance snow model, which incorporates important effects on snow accumulation and melt associated with vegetation canopy (Andreadis, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009) has been a notable advantage. Primary support for the project was provided by WDOE, with additional major support provided by the BPA, NWPCC, BCME, OWRD, and CTED via the 2009 WACCIA (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml) (Miles et al., Citation2010). Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. The Hot and the Cold of It Summer comes on strong. O weather.com oferece para voc a previso do tempo mais precisa para Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso com mdias/recordes e temperaturas mximas/mnimas, precipitaes e muito mais. (2010). The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America. Monday: A chance of snow before 4 p.m., then a slight chance of rain and snow. Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. Tonight Mostly cloudy. Ltude a produit une squence de traitements de donnes de bout en bout, la fine pointe, partant d'une sortie brute de modle climatique pour aboutir une srie de produits de modlisation hydrologique, qui sont offerts la communaut d'utilisateurs via une base de donnes Web. Daily and monthly streamflow for each streamflow site are provided in two formats: a) raw VIC simulations, and b) bias-adjusted simulations. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. The DOI via the USFWS has recently established a set of LCCs across the United States (USFWS, Citation2013) and has generated additional funding to support a group of regional CSCs, one of which was recently established in the PNW (PNWCSC), combining the efforts of about 15 PNW research universities, jointly led by the USGS, Oregon State University, the UW, and the University of Idaho. Because of a general lack of observed naturalized daily time-step flow for most streamflow sites, daily time step calibration using additional parameters such as the infiltration parameter (bi ) in VIC (Liang et al., Citation1994), or routing parameters (such as the unit hydrograph for each cell) were not attempted during the study. Thus, depending on their needs and level of technical sophistication, stakeholders can make the best use of the study products by extracting information at different points in the data processing sequence, all of which are available on the study web site. To minimize this data processing artifact, boundaries between months were smoothed while keeping the sum of daily streamflows equal to the original monthly values in the final product. Gusts up to 20 mph in the morning. Snowmelt-dominant basins in the United States, which are somewhat warmer and do not experience as much precipitation change in the scenarios, show increases in winter flow, earlier and reduced peak flow in spring, followed by an earlier streamflow recession and lower flows in late summer (e.g., Columbia River at The Dalles in Fig. Note the relative insensitivity of SWE to warming in the coldest, and most heavily snowmelt-dominant, areas in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia in comparison with the rest of the domain. The SRES A1B and B1 GHG emissions scenarios (Nakienovi et al. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. 6. 2013. Wind speed data are based on interpolated NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., Citation1996) using methods described by Elsner et al. Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. The climate of the high mountain regionsthe pramos, ranging from about 10,000 to 15,000 feet (3,000 to 4,600 metres)is characterized by average temperatures below 50 F (10 C), fog, overcast skies, frequent winds, and light rain or drizzle. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones, Using expressed behaviour of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) to evaluate the vulnerability of upriver migrants under future hydrological regimes: Management implications and conservation planning. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. If neither naturalized nor modified flow is available, no bias-adjusted data were provided. Until recently, a climate-change induced shift in water supply was the story of the Columbia River Basin's future. Produced by, Clean Energy and Green Building Major Projects, Private and public sector clean energy and green building construction projects valued at $15M or more for the 3rd quarter of each year. 3. In 2006, The Act relating to Water Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin [hereinafter HB2860] (2006) directed the WDOE to study water resources systems in Washington and identify specific projects in which to invest up to US$200 million provided by the bill to improve water resources infrastructure or management systems. These include the following: Columbia River Basin Impact Assessment: Reclamation conducted the Columbia River Basin Impact Assessment to evaluate the potential effects of future climate change on river flows at 158 locations across the basin. unpublished manuscript). Over the last several years, the USFS and USFWS have engaged with the CIG to produce a set of initial climate change hydrologic scenarios over much of the west using a common methodology intended to support landscape-scale assessment of climate change impacts (Littell et al., Citation2011). These spatial variations in the change in AET are broadly reflective of the dominant drivers of AET in each case. Lee. Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. Crook, A. G. (1993). Differences in the impacts in the US and Canadian portions of the basin are striking, confirming results reported in two previous studies (Hamlet, Citation2003; Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b). To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. They found that the vast majority of locations across the Columbia River Basin are expected to experience increases in maximum streamflow magnitudes in the future.
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